Fire Weather Outlook - National USData: Map Discussion: Day 1 Day 2 Days 3-8

000
FNUS21 KWNS 180852
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF AZ...SERN UT...WRN NM...PARTS OF SWRN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN EWD-MOVING...COMPOSITE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN UNITED STATES...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN CA/NV ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BEFORE REACHING THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF CO
AND NM BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SPEED MAXIMUM ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES...CNTRL
GREAT BASIN...AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SUPPORTING AREAS OF STRONG
SFC WINDS. ALSO...IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WLY COMPONENT OF THE
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...A LEE TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...A LARGE PART OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ...SERN UT...WRN
NM...PARTS OF SWRN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
SWRN TX -- WIND/RH...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAXIMUM CROSSES THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH
THE DEEPENING OF THE MIXED LAYER...SWLY TO WSWLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH BECOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7-13 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. AND...WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
TODAY.

THE STRONGEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...WHERE HIGH-END
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. ALSO IN THESE AREAS...SOME
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PLUME OF MOISTURE LEADING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THAT COULD INHIBIT /1/ SFC HEATING.../2/ THE
DEPTH OF VERTICAL MIXING...AND...THUS.../3/ THE STRENGTH OF SFC
WINDS...TO SOME DEGREE. ALTERNATIVELY...THIS MOISTURE MAY HAVE
CROSSED MUCH OF THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...YIELDING DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING AND STRONGER
SFC WIND SPEEDS. THESE FACTORS BREED UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WOULD REACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...AN UPGRADE TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS NOT BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL AZ AND NWRN/W-CNTRL NM.

...WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AZ TOWARD THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- WIND/RH...
WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...REINFORCED BY SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 7-13
PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
THE MIDDLE 90S. AND...WITH WLY WINDS OF 10 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20
MPH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE STRONGER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

...NORTHEAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN CO...FAR
NERN UT...S-CNTRL WY -- WIND/RH...
AS THE SPEED MAXIMUM CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SWLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN COMBINATION
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION -- I.E. GENERALLY FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S -- MOSTLY BEING COOLER COMPARED TO
THOSE FARTHER SOUTH...RH VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

...EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WIND/RH...
TO THE WEST OF A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH...SSWLY WINDS OF 15 TO
OCCASIONALLY/LOCALLY 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE LOWEST READINGS -- FROM 7 TO 14 PERCENT -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS /WEST OF THE DRYLINE/. THIS IS WHERE THE
WARMEST SFC TEMPERATURES -- IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE 90S -- ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING...AND
WITHOUT A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS IS TOO LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AREAS OF
ONGOING FUEL GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
REGARDLESS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN IN
LOCATIONS WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A COMPARATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SFC WINDS -- I.E. SLY AT 20-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- THOUGH HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF FUEL
GREEN-UP SHOULD ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...SERN UT...PORTIONS OF CO AND NWRN NM...WRN KS -- DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH /1/ THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.../2/ OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS...AND /3/ THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST MAINLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY.
AND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FEATURING A DEEP MIXED
LAYER...COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AT LEAST
MODEST STORM MOTIONS...A DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE IS
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY/ERRATIC SFC WINDS IN
MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THE COVERAGE OF ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WHILE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS...THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED
FROM THE RELATIVELY STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

..COHEN.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

000
FNUS22 KWNS 180853
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS...A COMPOSITE TROUGH...INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE COMPOSITE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS BASE LIFTS NEWD. A ZONE OF
MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHILE LYING GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF ITS AXIS. WEAK RIDGING WILL
OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN...AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...WHILE A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SERN STATES.

...PORTIONS OF W TX...ERN/SRN NM...
TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SWD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE MIDDLE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN CORRESPONDENCE
WITH SFC TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE 90S. SWLY
TO WLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION. FURTHERMORE...THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS...AND FUEL GREEN-UP
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ACCORDINGLY...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING INCLUDED. ALSO OF
NOTE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NNWLY TO NELY AND
INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL...AND RH VALUES RISE TO ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

..COHEN.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

000
FNUS28 KWNS 172032
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 251200Z

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
FROM SRN SK SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NEWD ALONG THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE OH VALLEY RIDGE AND EXTEND ALONG THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF D4/SUN AND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF D5/MON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON D4/SAT AND THE UPPER MS
VALLEY D5/SUN. FARTHER W...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LOW SO NO FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
THROUGH D5/MON. HOWEVER...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW AND GREAT BASIN. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE RH VALUES DO NOT CLIMB ABOVE 25
PERCENT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS AROUND D6/TUE. MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT IS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND LATITUDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH AT A HIGHER LATITUDE WHILE THE GFS AND
MOST OF THE MREF MEMBERS HAVE IT AT A LOWER LATITUDE. THE LOWER
LATITUDE SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW...GREAT BASIN... AND
SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...D3: E-CNTRL NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE...
MODERATE SWLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE BREVITY OF THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

..MOSIER.. 05/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...