545 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2012
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER
UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/TIMING/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH RESPECT TO UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA HAS INCREASED WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS AS UPPER FORCING SHOWN OVER LAST FEW DAYS IS STILL THERE
BUT IS NOW JOINED BY VERY WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY. GFS/NAM/SREFS/ECMWF ALL IN
AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE AND SOME MEASURABLE QPF AS WELL. THIS WAVE
WILL COME TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING. CONSENSUS OF TIMING SHOWS BEST
FORCING OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z SO CONFINED HIGHEST POPS TO
THAT TIME WITH LOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST INCREASING TO LIKELIES
ALONG I70 AND SOUTH AND FINALLY CATEGORICAL SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTH.
PRIOR TO THIS WILL SLOWLY RAMP POPS UP WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR
TO 6Z AND THEN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA FROM 6-9Z.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CONCERNED...MOST MODEL FIELDS ARE
INDICATING ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT NAM THICKNESSES START
OUT MARGINAL AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX
EARLY IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL CARRY LOW CHANCES FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS THROUGH 6Z AND ALL SNOW THEREAFTER.
AS FAR AS AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN THE SOUTH
WILL GO WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS THERE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TOTAL
IN THE SOUTH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH CENTRAL...AND ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST IF ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL AS IT IS FURTHEST FROM THE
FORCING. WHILE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ONLY AROUND AN INCH THE TIMING
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING FACTOR.
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO USED AN
AVERAGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. THE
UPPER WAVE IS THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT NEAR A GUIDANCE AVERAGE...BUT USED
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHS
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THIS YIELDED
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND AGAIN
TOWARDS MONDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WENT PRETTY MUCH TO ALL BLEND POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT IN THE NORTH I
INCREASED THEM A LITTLE AS THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FAR NORTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CONSALL NUMBERS AS THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND WARM ADVECTION
STARTS MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY.
MOST MODELS PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND THICKNESS SHOULD BE LOW
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW NORTH AND CENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT. RAISED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARM TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF CLOUDS. BUT ONLY CHANGE I MADE WAS TO LOWER THE NORTH HALF
A FEW DEGREES IN CASE THERE WAS SOME LEFT OVER SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080000Z TAFS/...
LOWER CONFIDENCE CEILING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE EDGE OF AN
MVFR DECK EXISTS BETWEEN KIND/KHUF/KBMG. THE EDGE HAS BEEN
RETREATING A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THE EDGE WILL BEGIN DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AT KLAF/KIND...AND GO
WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT KHUF/KBMG...WITH PREVIALING MVFR
CEILINGS OVERSPREADING ALL THE TAF SITES BY 080500Z.
OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH IOWA AND MISSOURI. HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 080900Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS
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